Insight: Rome will burn, regardless of Italian election result


ROME (Reuters) - Regardless of who wins next weekend's parliamentary election, Italy's long economic decline is likely to continue because the next government won't be strong enough to pursue the tough reforms needed to make its economy competitive again.


Bankers, diplomats and industrialists in Rome and Milan despair at how Italians are shifting allegiances ahead of the February 24-25 vote to favor anti-establishment upstarts and show disgust with the established parties.


That makes it more likely that no bloc will have the political strength to tackle Italy's deep-rooted economic crisis, which has made it Europe's most sluggish large economy for the past two decades.


Final opinion polls predict that the vote will deliver a working majority in both houses for a centre-left coalition governing in alliance with technocrat former prime minister Mario Monti. Political risk consultancy Eurasia assigns this scenario a 50-60 percent probability.


But Italy's election for both chambers of parliament has the potential to tip the euro zone back into instability if the outcome does not produce that result.


The colorful cast of candidates includes disgraced media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, one of the world's richest men, the bespectacled academic Monti, anti-establishment comedian Beppe Grillo who campaigns from a camper van, and Nichi Vendola, a former communist poet who is the governor of Puglia.


Investors have so far taken a relaxed view, relying on polls produced until the legal deadline for surveys of Feb 10.


One of the best indicators that they are not worried: Italian benchmark 10-year bond yields, which topped six percent during the country's worst political moments in 2011, are now trading around 4.4 percent, almost a full percentage point lower than those of Spain.


Italian stocks have performed broadly in line with the wider European market since January, despite the election and a wave of scandals which has engulfed several leading Italian groups.


But observers in Italy are increasingly nervous that the rosy election scenario favored by investors may not work out.


A jaded electorate, angry about political corruption, economic mismanagement and a national crisis that has impoverished a once-wealthy member of the G7 club of rich nations, could produce a surprise.


Pier Luigi Bersani, the standard-bearer for the centre-left, is a worthy but lackluster former minister whose party has been linked to a banking scandal in the mediaeval Tuscan town of Siena. Support for his party now seems to be fading.


Opponents have latched on to the fact that the ailing bank, Monte dei Paschi, was run by a foundation dominated by political appointees from the centre-left and accused Bersani's party of presiding over a debacle that will cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of euros.


CAMPER VAN POLITICS


Monti, dubbed "Rigor Montis" by one opponent for his austerity policies which critics say hurt growth, is stuck in fourth place and slipping. Detractors say he comes across poorly on the hustings and has been hurt because he formed an election alliance with two discredited centrist politicians who are emblematic of the traditional politics which Monti disavows.


The big gainer in the final days before the election, according to private surveys quoted by experts, is stand-up comedian Beppe Grillo and his anti-establishment 5-Star Movement. Grillo has been on a "tsunami tour" of Italy in a camper van, filling piazzas with his ringing denunciations of the country's political class. He campaigns mainly on the Internet, where his widely read blog features a list of Italy's parliamentarians convicted of a crime (it features 24 names).


"The big question is: what happens to Grillo?" said one senior banker in Milan, speaking on condition of anonymity. "He won't win but he could stop Bersani and Monti from getting enough seats to form an effective government."


Under the electoral law in force for this poll, which almost all Italians agree is in need of reform, voters cast ballots for a party list. The coalition with the most votes is awarded top-up seats in the lower house to give it a 55 percent majority. But in the Senate, the top-up premium applies by region.


Pollsters say the race is too close to call in a few battleground regions but there is a good chance the centre-left will fall short of a majority in the Senate, which has equal law-making powers to the lower house.


A substantial vote for Grillo's movement - and some experts suggest he could top 20 percent - could mean the new parliament is filled with new, inexperienced, anti-establishment deputies who may refuse to do deals with other politicians and block legislation. Bersani and Monti could find themselves without a workable majority in the Senate even in alliance - a scenario which Eurasia believe has a 20-30 percent probability.


"It's hard to see Grillo's movement as a source of stability," said one diplomat, speaking off the record. "There is no chance they would be part of a coalition."


CONVICTION POLITICIAN


Ironically Grillo himself will not be entering parliament regardless of how well his movement does. The shaggy-haired 63-year-old was convicted of manslaughter after three passengers died when a jeep he was driving crashed in 1981, making him ineligible for election under his own party's rules barring convicted criminals from parliament.


"Grillo's agenda is just silly," said one leading Italian columnist, speaking anonymously because his publication did not allow him to be quoted in other media before the vote.


"It's a fuck off policy. He wants to leave Europe, set up people's tribunals, halve public employees. It's the most visible symptom of Italy's political crisis."


The 5-Star Movement is not the only anti-establishment force threatening to make Italy ungovernable. The federalist Northern League, which favors greater autonomy for northern Italy, is polling around five percent nationally. Its leader Roberto Maroni told Reuters last week he would use his seats in parliament in alliance with the centre-right to block a centre-left coalition and prevent it from governing.


The League is particularly important in the Senate as its home region of Lombardy, where the party polls about 15 percent, returns by far the most senators - 49 out of a chamber of 319.


Should Grillo's movement and the Northern League win enough seats to deprive a centre-left coalition with Monti of an overall majority, the most likely outcome is a "grand coalition" of left and right, experts say.


Such a result would unsettle investors because it would be likely to bring centre-right leader former premier Berlusconi, 76, back into government in a key role and Monti would be unlikely to join it.


Berlusconi's own party has boosted its standing in polls over the past month, helped by the former premier's veteran campaigning skill and his dominance of the country's private TV channels. But nobody apart from his own supporters believes he is likely to win this time.


POPE FACTOR


Pope Benedict's unexpected resignation this month has pushed the parliamentary election off the front pages in Italy, giving Berlusconi less print space and TV air time to press his populist message. The main beneficiary appears to be Grillo, whose strategy of ignoring mainstream media and campaigning on the Internet has been unaffected by the news from the Vatican.


Investors above all want a government which will tackle the reasons for Italy's lackluster performance. Italy has hardly grown since the birth of the euro in 1999 and its economy has slumped faster since the 2007 financial crisis than any other in Europe except Greece. Last year, Italy contracted by 2.2 percent, according to official statistics.


Businessmen complain of three main obstacles: stifling bureaucracy, labor laws which offer workers so much protection that they encourage slack performance, and a dysfunctional court system which makes it hard to enforce contracts and collect debts. All are deep-rooted problems and none is likely to be tackled effectively by a weak and divided government.


"Nobody in Italy is ready to make the reforms our country needs right now," said the chief executive of a major Italian company, speaking off the record.


"I am deeply convinced that without a major change in labor flexibility, we will not be able to increase productivity. My personal experience is that Italian labor is fantastic. But if you take a very good worker and tell him his job is completely safe, you will turn him into a slacker."


Italy's byzantine court system - where cases can languish for years - and its legendary bureaucracy are major obstacles to foreign investment and competitiveness, business people and diplomats say. "Foreign companies are surprised by how hard it is to get things done here which we all thought had been agreed in Brussels 20 years ago," said one senior European diplomat.


Monti's technocratic government won plaudits from business for reforming Italy's pension system but its efforts to reform labor laws did not enjoy similar success. Monti's government lasted 13 months until Berlusconi's bloc triggered its collapse by withdrawing support. Some observers in Italy don't believe that the next parliament's make-up will be nearly as conducive to reform as the outgoing one.


MUDDLE-THROUGH OUTCOME


"I want to be optimistic but my best guess is that they will keep to this muddle-through scenario in the next parliament with lackluster results for the economy," said a second senior diplomat. "This country needs a new generation of political leaders."


Key among the concerns of diplomats and business people is the disparate nature of the centre-left coalition leading in polls.


Bersani's election alliance is made up of four main parties, stretching from the former communist Vendola through the Christian left to socialists and centrists. If it is unable to govern alone, as most polls predict, it will need the support of Monti's bloc - itself made up of three parties.


Bankers fear that a government made up of seven different groups of widely varying political hues is highly unlikely to agree on the tough, radical reform measures the country needs.


"If we have a government made up of Bersani, Monti and Vendola, they will argue all the time," said the chief executive. "Bersani and Vendola's capacity for reform is almost zero." Comparing the present Italian centre-left candidate to the former German chancellor whose successful labor reforms belied his socialist roots, he added: "Bersani is no Schroeder".


Bersani's economic spokesman Stefano Fassina insists that the centre-left fully understands the urgency of Italy's economic plight and is committed to deliver on measures to stop the rot. But he puts the emphasis on making the public sector more efficient and persuading Berlin to tone down budget austerity at a European level rather than pursuing labor reform in Italy. Fassina insists that public commitments by Bersani and Vendola on an agreed program will minimize disagreements but he does admit to concern about how a centre-left administration could work with Grillo's unpredictable forces.


"It's impossible to have any discussions with Grillo as a party," he said. "We hope that in parliament some of his MPs will be pragmatic enough to agree on reasonable measures."


With so much uncertainty about the election and the chances fading of it returning a strong, stable reformist government, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Italy's slow, steady economic decline will continue regardless of the result.


"We've seen a steady economic decline in Italy over the past 20 years and it's very hard to see any outcome from this election which will reverse that. The reforms which would really get the country going again are out of reach," concluded the European diplomat.


(Editing by Peter Millership and Giles Elgood)



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Shares edge higher, euro flat ahead German data

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares edged higher and the euro was steady on Tuesday ahead of German economic sentiment data, while the yen rose after Japanese ministers played down talk the Bank of Japan might buy foreign bonds to loosen credit.


Following last week's GDP figures showing that the euro zone saw a weaker end to 2012 than expected, forecasters see a pick-up in Germany's ZEW survey of investors and analysts at 1000 GMT, which may point to rebound in the bloc's biggest economy.


European stock markets, which have lost around 1.5 percent since the end of January, bounced backed from Monday's weak session in early trading, with the FTSEurofirst 300 <.fteu3> up 0.4 percent led by 0.7 and 0.5 percent gains on Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi>.


Underscoring the drag Europe's economic sluggishness is creating, new figures showed car firms had their weakest January since the records of the Association of European Carmakers began in 1990, with sales dropping 8.5 percent.


Berkeley Futures associate director Richard Griffiths said the Euro STOXX 50 and German DAX <.gdaxi> equity index could fall by between 3 and 4 percent over the coming month as economic weakness acts to cap investor sentiment.


"Any inroads to the upside will be hard to come by," he said. "We're in for a period of consolidation, with the risk more to the downside."


In the bond market, benchmark German Bunds edged up as demand for low-risk debt was also supported by concerns over the possibility of an inconclusive outcome to the Italian parliamentary election on Sunday and Monday, though gains were capped ahead of the German sentiment data.


The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.3345 by 0900 GMT after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated on Monday that the bank would continue to monitor whether the currency's recent strength was likely to push inflation below its comfort zone.


The yen rose after Japanese ministers played down talk of foreign-bond buying by the country's central bank, a day after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said such a policy could be one option for monetary easing.


Finance Minister Taro Aso told a news conference that he was not considering foreign-bond purchases as a part of monetary easing, while Economy Minister Akira Amari said Abe's comments on Monday simply referred to policy options countries have in general.


Their comments sent the dollar down to 93.39 yen. The euro eased 0.6 percent to 124.70 yen, well below its peak since April 2010 of 127.71 yen touched on February 6.


(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)



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Pistorius charged with murdering girlfriend


PRETORIA, South Africa (AP) — Sobbing softly with his head in his hands, Olympian Oscar Pistorius was charged Tuesday with the premeditated murder of his girlfriend on Valentine's Day. The defense lawyer says it was an accidental shooting.


Prosecutor Gerrie Nel told the court that Pistorius got up from bed, put on his prosthetic legs and walked seven meters (yards) from the bedroom toward the bathroom and shot 29-year-old Reeva Steenkamp several times through the bathroom door, Pretoria. Nel told the court the door was broken open afterward.


The shooting death in the early hours of Valentine's Day of Steenkamp has shocked South Africans and many around the world who idolized Pistorius for overcoming adversity to become a sports champion, competing in the London Olympics last year in track besides being a Paralympian. Steenkamp was a model and budding reality TV show contestant.


Nel said the killing was premeditated because Pistorius had planned to say that he thought he was shooting an intruder. "It was all part of the preplanning. Why would a burglar lock himself inside the bathroom?" Nel said.


Defense lawyer Barry Roux said the shooting was accidental: "We submit it is not even murder. There is no concession this is a murder."


In arguing that Pistorius should be freed on bail, he said there were no other charges outstanding against the 26-year-old double-amputee who last year became the first double-amputee track athlete to run at the Olympics.


As the dramatic court hearing was held in the capital, Steenkamp's body was being driven to a church for a memorial service under gray skies in the south coast city of Port Elizabeth. Six pall bearers carried the coffin draped in white flowers. The family said relatives have gathered from around the world.


June Steenkamp, the mother, said the family wants answers.


"Why? Why my little girl? Why did this happen? Why did he do this?" she said in an interview published Monday in The Times newspaper.


Legal experts say it could take months for the case to be tried.


Pistorius, in a gray suit and tie, nodded after the chief magistrate asked if he was well. And he nodded his appreciation when his brother, Carl, pressed his shoulder in support. Journalists jammed into the courtroom, which was full with almost 100 people, including Pistorius' father, Henke, and the athlete's sister, Aimee.


In an email to The Associated Press on Monday, Pistorius' longtime track coach — who was yet to comment — said he believes the killing was an accident.


"I pray that we can all, in time, come through this challenging situation following the accident and I am looking forward to the day I can get my boy back on the track," Louw wrote in his statement. "I am still in shock following the heart-breaking events that occurred last week and my thoughts and prayers are with both of the families involved."


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Rain, cold weather returns to Bay Area






Another winter storm is approaching California, where it’s expected to bring freezing temperature, thunder, rain and snow as low as 1500 feet.


The National Weather Service said the cold weather system from the Gulf of Alaska was expected to reach the Bay Area late Monday and rain was forecast for Tuesday morning’s commute.






Dark clouds started rolling across the Bay Area late Monday afternoon, and the menacing-looking sky obliterated the bright sunshine that many enjoyed the last few weeks.


“Oh, man it was wonderful. It was just great. I was grateful because I had a lot of outside work to do,” said Joe Munch of Mendocino County.


An unusually wet November and December gave Bay Area water agencies a strong start to the rainy season.


At Lake Lagunitas in Fairfax, the water level is high enough that some came over of the spillway.


Marin County relies almost entirely on rainfall to replenish its water supply and despite the third driest January on record, Marin’s reservoirs are at 98 percent of capacity.


East Bay Municipal Utilities District gets 90 percent of its water from Sierra sno pack and right now its reservoirs are at 81 percent of capacity.


In the South Bay, things are not looking so bright for the Santa Clara Valley Water District where the reservoirs are just 50 percent full.


The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission was unavailable on the President’s Day holiday to provide information on the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir which supplies the city and much of the peninsula.


But a United States Geological Survey website shows that as of Monday, Hetch Hetchy is still almost full.


 In Northern California, the heaviest snow was expected to drop Tuesday, bringing up to 10 inches above 3000 feet and 2 to 4 inches in the foothills above 2000 feet.


The storm was expected to move out of the state by Wednesday.


Weather News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Time to respect Chavez's merits?








By Samuel Moncada, Special to CNN


February 18, 2013 -- Updated 1218 GMT (2018 HKT)







One Venezuelan official says the reforms enacted in Hugo Chavez's 14-year tenure deserve respect.




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Despite perceptions, Hugo Chavez has brought social progress to Venezuela

  • Moncada: Venezuela's critics have engineered a false narrative of impending disaster

  • Venezuela has used its vast oil reserves to transform lives of ordinary people

  • Ambassador says Chavez's most significant achievement is his empowerment of the majority




Editor's note: Samuel Moncada has been the Ambassador of Venezuela to the United Kingdom since 2007 and holds a PhD in Modern History from Oxford University. He is solely responsible for the content of this analysis.


(CNN) -- Reading the international press, one would be forgiven for thinking that Venezuela is on the verge of collapse.


Over the past decade, all sorts of predictions have been made, ranging from catastrophic election defeats to the implosion of the Venezuelan economy. But the fact these predictions have failed to materialize has not deterred many of Venezuela's most fervent critics in their quest to engineer a constant and misleading narrative of impending disaster.


More: Chavez returns after Cuba cancer treatment


The reality is that ever since President Hugo Chavez was first elected, Venezuela has defied these negative predictions and brought unprecedented social progress to the country over the last 14 years. Since 2004 poverty has been reduced by half and extreme poverty has been cut by 70%. University enrolment has doubled, entitlement to public pensions has tripled, and access to health care and all levels of education have been dramatically expanded.


Venezuela now has the lowest levels of economic inequality of any Latin American country as measured by the Gini coefficient. Our country has already achieved many of the Millennium Development Goals, and is well on target to achieve all eight by the 2015 deadline.


This progress has been achieved by using Venezuela's vast oil revenues to transform the lives of ordinary people. The sheer scale of our oil reserves -- the world's largest -- guarantees the complete sustainability of the model in which the country's resources are used to stimulate growth in the economy and aid development.


But Chavez's most significant achievement has been to trigger the awakening and empowerment of the majority. A majority of Venezuelans have seen vast improvements in their living standards and, as a consequence, they have continued to defend their interests at the ballot box.


The Venezuelan people are very clear about what they want. President Chavez was re-elected in October 2012 with 54% of the vote in an election that boasted an 81% turnout. The Venezuelan people showed their support for the government again in December 2012 in the gubernatorial elections, which saw Chavez's political party win 20 out of 23 states.


Governments in Europe and other parts of the world could only dream of these levels of support after 14 years in power. This shows that social progress in Venezuela has been consolidated and that there is a desire to further expand this progress.


In the coming years, the Venezuelan government will continue to respond to the needs of the Venezuelan people. Hundreds of thousands of new homes have been built over the last two years which have not only greatly improved living standards but also provided jobs and contributed to a boom in the construction industry. The government is well on its way to meeting its target of building three million new homes by 2019.


While many economies around the world are shrinking, the Venezuelan economy grew by 5.5% in 2012. Against the backdrop of a continuing international financial crisis, commerce in Venezuela grew by 9.2% and communications by 7.2%, manufacturing grew by 2.1% and the oil sector grew by 1.4% -- making Venezuela one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America.


At a time when many countries are attacking the rights of the most vulnerable sectors of society, Venezuela is providing ever greater protection for low-income senior citizens and single-parent families with younger children or disabled dependents.


The failed development models of previous governments condemned millions of Venezuelans to poverty. Before the election of Chavez in 1998, Venezuela suffered years of falling GDP. The country had one of the worst economic records in the world -- a record that led to mass social unrest and violent military crackdowns.


Venezuela will continue on its path of social progress and empowering ordinary citizens. The greatest hope for the future is the people know that they alone hold the power to determine the direction the country will take.


After so many failed predictions, isn't it time to respect Venezuela's democracy and the will of the people?












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Rose returns to 5-on-5 drills for first time since injury









A sense of doubt has evolved into a hint of optimism about Derrick Rose's comeback from knee surgery.

The Bulls guard, who last week mentioned the possibility of sitting out the season, appeared to take another step Monday as he participated in 5-on-5 drills during practice.






"He was able to get out there, and it's good," teammate Kirk Hinrich said. "It was something that (we) as a team needed, as far as every individual coming off the (All-Star) break needed to scrimmage a little bit. And I'm sure it was good for (Rose), helpful to ... give him a good gauge of where he's at."

Coach Tom Thibodeau said Rose did "what everyone else did'' and said his participation wasn't out of the ordinary based on the previously stated outlook. The plan all along was to have Rose return to 5-on-5 action after the break.

Rose cited his inability to dunk as the reason he knew he hadn't fully recovered, and Joakim Noah said Rose still wasn't dunking Monday. The Bulls went through three scrimmages of seven to eight minutes, during which Rose ran full-court. It was unclear how much contact Rose endured or how much pressure he put on his left knee.

"He's doing what he should be doing,'' Thibodeau said. "He's focused on his rehab, doing more and more. We just have to be patient. When he's ready, he'll go.''

Thibodeau reiterated how his players need to pick up their intensity after dropping five of the last seven games and six of the last 10. A Rose return would instantly inject life into the 30-22 Bulls, although they've performed admirably at times in his absence while currently holding the Eastern Conference's fifth seed.

Until Rose steps on the court for a game, his teammates have to lean on each other.

"When we're right and we're playing the right way, we've proved that we can beat everybody,'' Noah said. "We've also proved that if we don't come with the right (attitude), don't play together, we can lose to anybody.''

The return of Hinrich to the lineup for Tuesday night's game in New Orleans should provide a boost. The Bulls went 2-5 with Hinrich sidelined by a right elbow infection and committed 15.6 turnovers per game in the losses.

With all due respect to Nate Robinson and his scoring ability, Hinrich runs the offense more efficiently and is a better defender.

"He's a huge part of what we do, and it just feels good to have Kirk back,'' Noah said. "What he brings to our team, it's hard to measure. His defensive intensity, the ball movement ... it's all big.''

The Bulls have lost two straight and take on a 19-34 Hornets team that has won its last two and is 5-5 over the last 10. Four of the Bulls' next six opponents have sub-.500 records, but the Heat (36-14) and Thunder (39-14) are in that stretch too.

"We have to clean some things up offensively and defensively,'' Thibodeau said. "But the biggest challenge is going to be the level of intensity, to get that back.''

vxmcclure@tribune.com

Twitter @vxmcclure23



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Chavez back in Venezuela, on Twitter with four million followers


CARACAS (Reuters) - After Hugo Chavez spent two months out of the public eye for cancer surgery in Cuba, the Venezuelan government hailed his homecoming on Monday and said the president had achieved another milestone - four million followers on Twitter.


The 58-year-old flew back from Havana before dawn and was taken to a military hospital. No new details were given on his health, and there were no images of his arrival. Officials say his condition remains delicate.


The normally loquacious socialist leader, who is struggling to speak as he breathes through a tracheal tube, took to Twitter with a passion back in April 2010, tweeting regularly and encouraging other leftist Latin American leaders to do likewise.


His @chavezcandanga account quickly drew a big mixed following of fans, critics and others just curious to see how his famously long speeches and fiery anti-U.S. invective would work within the social media network's 140-character limit.


But as he fought the cancer and underwent weeks of grueling chemotherapy and radiation therapy, he began to tweet less and less frequently, before stopping altogether on November 1.


Early on Monday morning, he made his reappearance.


"It was 4:30, 5 a.m. He got to his room and surprised everyone: rat-tat-tat, he sent three or four messages, and at that moment fireworks began to go off around the country," Vice President Nicolas Maduro said in a televised cabinet meeting.


During the day, Maduro added, the president's number of followers had shot up to well over four million.


"It's incredible, in just a few hours ... he's the second most-followed president in the world (after Barack Obama), and the first if we make the comparison by per capita," he said.


Obama has more than 27 million Twitter followers and is No. 5 most followed globally. Chavez is Twitter's No. 190 globally.


4TH MILLION FOLLOWER


Maduro said Chavez's four millionth follower was a 20-year-old single Venezuelan woman named Alemar Jimenez from the gritty San Juan neighborhood in downtown Caracas, near the military hospital where the president arrived earlier in the day.


"She's one of the golden generation of youth who support the fatherland and have been waiting with growing love for commander Hugo Chavez," Maduro said, before presenting a dazzled-looking Jimenez to the cameras and giving her a bunch of flowers.


"We were really emotional" she said, recounting how she was with her mother when they heard Chavez had returned. "I sent him a message on Twitter saying he must get better."


There are still big questions over the president's health. He could have come back to govern from behind the scenes, or he may be hoping to ease political tensions and pave the way for a transition to Maduro, his preferred successor.


Chavez has often ordered followers to fight back against opposition critics of his self-styled revolution by using social media, leading from the front himself on Twitter and referring to the Internet as a "battle trench."


As his ranks of followers grew, Chavez said he hired 200 assistants to help him respond to messages - which he said were a great way to receive first-hand the requests, demands, complaints and denunciations of citizens in the thousands.


During his re-election campaign last year, the government launched an SMS text message service that forwards his tweets to cellphones that lack Internet service, broadening their reach to the poorest corners of the South American country.


"He's a communication revolution!" Maduro said, later unbuttoning his shirt on TV to show he was wearing a T-shirt bearing Chavez's eyes emblazoned across his chest.


For the tens of thousands who signed up on Monday to follow Chavez on Twitter, it is unclear how much will be posted there in the weeks and months ahead. Venezuela's 29 million people are mostly wondering something similar.


(Additional reporting by Diego Ore; Editing by Todd Eastham)



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Euro, dollar gain after G20, stocks weaker

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro and the dollar gained against the yen on Monday after the G20 decided not to criticize Japan for its expansionary policies, but Europe's weak growth outlook and the approach of Italian elections capped the moves.


Financial leaders from the world's 20 biggest economies promised in their final statement after a weekend meeting not to devalue their currencies to boost exports, in a bid to defuse talk of currency wars among major nations.


The euro gained 0.15 percent to 125.20 yen, edging up toward a 34-month high of 127.71 yen hit earlier this month, while the dollar rose 0.5 percent to 93.99 yen, closer to its highest since May 2010 of 94.46 hit on February 11.


"Future yen direction will continue to be driven by domestic monetary policy from the Bank of Japan and improving international investor confidence, which are both driving the yen weaker," said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.


With the G20 meeting over, the focus in European markets is switching to the release of euro area Purchasing Managers' Indexes for February and German sentiment indices due later in the week, and the upcoming general elections in Italy.


Analysts expect the euro area flash PMI indices, which point to economic activity around six months out, to show growth stabilizing rather than a clear end to the current recession across the region.


The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> of top European shares opened down 0.1 percent at 1,159.87 points, with Germany's DAX <.gdaxi>, the UK's FTSE <.ftse> and France's CAC-40 <.fchi> flat to slightly weaker. <.l><.eu/>


Earlier, the effect of the G20 statement and further announcements from Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe indicating a renewed drive to stimulate the economy lifted the Nikkei stock index <.n225> by 2.1 percent, near to its highest level since September 2008.


Meanwhile U.S. stock futures were barely changed and are expected to stay little changed as Wall Street will be closed on Monday for the Presidents' Day holiday. <.n/>


In the commodity markets, copper fell 0.7 percent to $8,150 a tonne as traders played catch up after a week-long holiday in China last week, with worries about the euro zone economy weighing on sentiment.


U.S. crude fell 34 cents to $95.50 a barrel but Brent inched up six cents $117.70.


Gold rebounded by 0.3 percent from a six-month low to be $1,614 an ounce as jewelers in China returned to the physical market after the Lunar New Year holiday.


(Reporting by Richard Hubbard. Editing by Giles Elgood)



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Danica Patrick wins pole for NASCAR's Daytona 500


DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Danica Patrick is at her best in the spotlight.


Good thing, too, because she's going to be there all week.


Patrick won the Daytona 500 pole Sunday, becoming the first woman to secure the top spot for any race in NASCAR's premier circuit. It's by far the biggest achievement of her stock-car career. She's braced for the attention that will follow.


"I think when pressure's on and when the spotlight's on, I feel like it ultimately ends up becoming some of my better moments and my better races and better results," Patrick said. "I just understand that if you put the hard work in before you go out there that you can have a little peace and a little peace of mind knowing that you've done everything you can and just let it happen."


Patrick, who taped interviews Sunday with CNN, ESPN and Good Morning America, was the first woman to lead laps in the Indianapolis 500. She finished third in 2009, the highest finish in that illustrious race for a woman. And she became the only woman to win an IndyCar race when she did it in Japan in 2008.


Her latest stamp in the history books came with a lap at 196.434 mph around Daytona International Speedway. Patrick went out eighth in the qualifying session, then had to wait about two hours as 37 fellow drivers tried to take her spot.


Only four-time Cup champion Jeff Gordon even came close to knocking her off the pole. Gordon was the only other driver who topped 196 mph in qualifying. He locked up the other guaranteed spot in next week's season-opening Daytona 500.


"It's great to be a part of history with Danica being on the pole," said Gordon, who joked that at least he was the fastest guy. "I think we all know how popular she is, what this will do for our sport. Congratulations to her. Proud to be on there with her."


The rest of the field will be set in duel qualifying races Thursday.


However the lineup unfolds, all drivers — including boyfriend Ricky Stenhouse Jr. — will line up behind Patrick's No. 10 Chevrolet SS.


"I was brought up to be the fastest driver, not the fastest girl," she said. "That was instilled in me from very young, from the beginning. Then I feel like thriving in those moments, where the pressure's on, has also been a help for me. I also feel like I've been lucky in my career to be with good teams and have good people around me. I don't think any of it would have been possible without that.


"For those reasons, I've been lucky enough to make history, be the first woman to do many things. I really just hope that I don't stop doing that. We have a lot more history to make. We are excited to do it."


Even before her fast lap, Patrick had been the talk of Speedweeks. Not only did she open up about her budding romance with Stenhouse — Patrick officially filed to end her seven-year marriage to 47-year-old Paul Hospenthal in January — but she was considered the front-runner for the pole after leading practice sessions Saturday.


Now, she will garner even more hype.


"That's a huge accomplishment," team owner and fellow driver Tony Stewart said. "It's not like it's been 15 or 20 years she's been trying to do this. It's her second trip to Daytona here in a Cup car. She's made history in the sport. That's stuff that we're proud of being a part of with her. It's something she should have a huge amount of pride in.


"It's never been done. There's only one person that can be the first to do anything. Doesn't matter how many do it after you do, accomplish that same goal. The first one that does always has that little bit more significance to it because you were the first."


The result surely felt good for Patrick, especially considering the former IndyCar driver has mostly struggled in three NASCAR seasons. Her best finish in 10 Cup races is 17th, and she has one top-five in 58 starts in the second-tier Nationwide Series.


She raced part-time in 2010 and 2011 while still driving a full IndyCar slate. She switched solely to stock cars last season and finished 10th in the Nationwide standings.


She made the jump to Sprint Cup this season and will battle Stenhouse for Rookie of the Year honors.


Starting out front in an unpredictable, 500-mile race doesn't guarantee any sort of result, but securing the pole will put her in the limelight for at least the rest of the week.


"I don't think about Danica as a female race-car driver," defending Cup champion Brad Keselowski said. "I think of her as a rookie and someone that hasn't won races or proved that she is competitive."


Patrick won the pole at Daytona for last year's Nationwide race.


But this is considerably different, significantly bigger.


The previous highest female qualifier in a Cup race was Janet Guthrie. She started ninth at Bristol and Talladega in 1977.


"It's obviously a history-making event that will last a long, long time," Guthrie said, praising Patrick's feat. "It's a different era, of course. Different times. I can't imagine what I would do with a spotter or somebody telling me how to drive. It's rather a different sport now. Back then, there was a much greater difference from the front of the field to the back."


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Thousands at climate rally in Washington call on Obama to reject Keystone pipeline






WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Thousands of protesters gathered on the Washington’s National Mall on Sunday calling on President Barack Obama to reject the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline proposal and honor his inaugural pledge to act on climate change.


Organizers of the “Forward on Climate” event estimated that 35,000 people from 30 states turned out in cold, blustery conditions for what they said was the biggest climate rally in U.S. history. Police did not verify the crowd size.






Protesters also marched around the nearby White House, chanting “Keystone pipeline? Shut it down.” Among the celebrities on hand were actresses Rosario Dawson and Evangeline Lilly, and hedge fund manager and environmentalist Tom Steyer.


The event came days after a bipartisan group of U.S. senators made the latest call for Obama to approve the $ 5.3 billion pipeline, seen by many as an engine for job growth and another step toward energy independence.


A new poll by Harris Interactive showed 69 percent of respondents said they support construction of the pipeline, with only 17 percent saying they oppose it.


One of Sunday’s main organizers, climate activist Bill McKibben, said that approving the pipeline, which would transport crude oil from the oil sands of northern Alberta to refineries and ports in Texas, would be akin to lighting a “carbon bomb” that could cause irreparable harm to the climate.


“For 25 years our government has basically ignored the climate crisis: now people in large numbers are finally demanding they get to work,” said McKibben, founder of the environmental group 350.org.


Other major organizing groups on Sunday included the Sierra Club and the Hip-Hop Caucus.


The proposed TransCanada Corp project has been pending for 4-1/2 years. A revised route through Nebraska, which would avoid crossing sensitive ecological zones and aquifers, was approved by that state’s governor last month.


Backers of Keystone, which would transport 830,000 barrels of oil per day, say it would provide thousands of jobs in the United States and increase North American energy security.


Environmentalists oppose the pipeline because the oil sands extraction process is carbon intensive, and say the oil extracted is dirtier than traditional crude oil.


Van Jones, Obama’s former green jobs adviser, said if the president approved the pipeline just weeks after pledging to act on climate change, it would overshadow other actions Obama takes to reduce pollution.


“There is nothing else you can do if you let that pipeline go through. It doesn’t matter what you do on smog rules and automobile rules – you’ve already given the whole game way,” said Jones, who is president of Rebuild the Dream, a non-government organization.


Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, the lone member of Congress to speak at the rally, told Reuters Obama risked creating a “credibility gap” if he approved the pipeline.


“He would have to roll out a very complete and very strong package to offset something that on its own is described by government scientist as ‘game-over’ on climate,” he said.


Still, some of Obama’s core constituents favor the pipeline, including the labor union AFL-CIO’s building and construction unit, which sees the potential for job creation for its members, and certain Democratic lawmakers.


In January, nine Democratic senators joined 44 Republicans in urging the president to approve Keystone XL.


(Reporting By Valerie Volcovici; editing by Ros Krasny and Mohammad Zargham)


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